We develop a method to generate prediction sets with a guaranteed coverage rate that is robust to corruptions in the training data, such as missing or noisy variables.

Calibration sample selection and forecast combination are two simple yet powerful tools used in forecasting. They can be combined with a variety of models to significantly improve prediction accuracy, at the same time offering easy implementation and low computational complexity. While their effectiveness has been repeatedly confirmed in prior scientific literature, the topic is still underexplored in the field of electricity price forecasting. In this research article we apply the Autoregressive Hybrid Nearest Neighbors (ARHNN) method to three long-term time series describing the German, Spanish and New England electricity markets. We show that it outperforms popular literature benchmarks in terms of forecast accuracy by up to 10%. We also propose two simplified variants of the method, granting a vast decrease in computation time with only minor loss of prediction accuracy. Finally, we compare the forecasts' performance in a battery storage system trading case study. We find that using a forecast-driven strategy can achieve up to 80% of theoretical maximum profits while trading, demonstrating business value in practical applications.

While Neural Network pruning typically requires retraining the model to recover pruning-induced performance degradation, state-of-the-art Large Language Models (LLMs) pruning methods instead solve a layer-wise mask selection and reconstruction problem on a small set of calibration data to avoid full retraining, as it is considered computationally infeasible for LLMs. Reconstructing single matrices in isolation has favorable properties, such as convexity of the objective and significantly reduced memory requirements compared to full retraining. In practice, however, reconstruction is often implemented at coarser granularities, e.g., reconstructing a whole transformer block against its dense activations instead of a single matrix. In this work, we study the key design choices when reconstructing or retraining the remaining weights after pruning. We conduct an extensive computational study on state-of-the-art GPT architectures, and report several surprising findings that challenge common intuitions about retraining after pruning. In particular, we observe a free lunch scenario: reconstructing attention and MLP components separately within each transformer block is nearly the most resource-efficient yet achieves the best perplexity. Most importantly, this Pareto-optimal setup achieves better performance than full retraining, despite requiring only a fraction of the memory. Furthermore, we demonstrate that simple and efficient pruning criteria such as Wanda can outperform much more complex approaches when the reconstruction step is properly executed, highlighting its importance. Our findings challenge the narrative that retraining should be avoided at all costs and provide important insights into post-pruning performance recovery for LLMs.

Methods for split conformal prediction leverage calibration samples to transform any prediction rule into a set-prediction rule that complies with a target coverage probability. Existing methods provide remarkably strong performance guarantees with minimal computational costs. However, they require to use calibration samples composed by labeled examples different to those used for training. This requirement can be highly inconvenient, as it prevents the use of all labeled examples for training and may require acquiring additional labels solely for calibration. This paper presents an effective methodology for split conformal prediction with unsupervised calibration for classification tasks. In the proposed approach, set-prediction rules are obtained using unsupervised calibration samples together with supervised training samples previously used to learn the classification rule. Theoretical and experimental results show that the presented methods can achieve performance comparable to that with supervised calibration, at the expenses of a moderate degradation in performance guarantees and computational efficiency.

Conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with guaranteed marginal coverage. However, in split conformal prediction this guarantee is training-conditional only in expectation: across many calibration draws, the average coverage equals the nominal level, but the realized coverage for a single calibration set may vary substantially. This variance undermines effective risk control in practical applications. Here we introduce the Small Sample Beta Correction (SSBC), a plug-and-play adjustment to the conformal significance level that leverages the exact finite-sample distribution of conformal coverage to provide probabilistic guarantees, ensuring that with user-defined probability over the calibration draw, the deployed predictor achieves at least the desired coverage.

Although appearance-based point-of-gaze (PoG) estimation has improved, the estimators still struggle to generalize across individuals due to personal differences. Therefore, person-specific calibration is required for accurate PoG estimation. However, calibrated PoG estimators are often sensitive to head pose variations. To address this, we investigate the key factors influencing calibrated estimators and explore pose-robust calibration strategies. Specifically, we first construct a benchmark, MobilePoG, which includes facial images from 32 individuals focusing on designated points under either fixed or continuously changing head poses. Using this benchmark, we systematically analyze how the diversity of calibration points and head poses influences estimation accuracy. Our experiments show that introducing a wider range of head poses during calibration improves the estimator's ability to handle pose variation. Building on this insight, we propose a dynamic calibration strategy in which users fixate on calibration points while moving their phones. This strategy naturally introduces head pose variation during a user-friendly and efficient calibration process, ultimately producing a better calibrated PoG estimator that is less sensitive to head pose variations than those using conventional calibration strategies. Codes and datasets are available at our project page.

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification method that has gained popularity in the machine learning community due to its finite-sample guarantees and ease of use. Its most common variant, dubbed split conformal prediction, is also computationally efficient as it boils down to collecting statistics of the model predictions on some calibration data not yet seen by the model. Nonetheless, these guarantees only hold if the calibration and test data are exchangeable, a condition that is difficult to verify and often violated in practice due to so-called distribution shifts. The literature is rife with methods to mitigate the loss in coverage in this non-exchangeable setting, but these methods require some prior information on the type of distribution shift to be expected at test time. In this work, we study this problem via a new perspective, through the lens of optimal transport, and show that it is possible to estimate the loss in coverage and mitigate it in case of distribution shift.

Accurate drug-target interaction (DTI) prediction with machine learning models is essential for drug discovery. Such models should also provide a credible representation of their uncertainty, but applying classical marginal conformal prediction (CP) in DTI prediction often overlooks variability across drug and protein subgroups. In this work, we analyze three cluster-conditioned CP methods for DTI prediction, and compare them with marginal and group-conditioned CP. Clusterings are obtained via nonconformity scores, feature similarity, and nearest neighbors, respectively. Experiments on the KIBA dataset using four data-splitting strategies show that nonconformity-based clustering yields the tightest intervals and most reliable subgroup coverage, especially in random and fully unseen drug-protein splits. Group-conditioned CP works well when one entity is familiar, but residual-driven clustering provides robust uncertainty estimates even in sparse or novel scenarios. These results highlight the potential of cluster-based CP for improving DTI prediction under uncertainty.

Accurate and reliable photometric redshifts determination is one of the key aspects for wide-field photometric surveys. Determination of photometric redshift for galaxies, has been traditionally solved by use of machine-learning and artificial intelligence techniques trained on a calibration sample of galaxies, where both photometry and spectrometry are determined. On this paper, we present a new algorithmic approach for determining photometric redshifts of galaxies using Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (CGANs). Proposed CGAN implementation, approaches photometric redshift determination as a probabilistic regression, where instead of determining a single value for the estimated redshift of the galaxy, a full probability density is computed. The methodology proposed, is tested with data from Dark Energy Survey (DES) Y1 data and compared with other existing algorithm such as a Random Forest regressor.